COP31 Opens in Turkey as Energy Prices Spike and Warming Accelerates

The 31st Conference of Parties, or COP31, opens Monday in Antalya, Turkey, where world leaders will address the widening gap between climate promises and economic realities.

The conference follows a volatile year marked by energy price shocks and rising temperatures. In October 2026, the European climate agency Copernicus announced that the month was the hottest on record. The agency also confirmed that 2026 will likely be the second year to exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold, following 2024.

Global warming has reached 1.4 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. The United Nations now projects the world is on a trajectory toward 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. This shift comes after the U.N. readjusted its long-standing goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius just two months ago.

Fossil fuels remain the central economic issue. The U.N. estimates that global subsidies for coal, oil, and gas reached $1.1 trillion this year. Despite the high cost, renewable energy is growing because solar and wind power have become cheaper and cleaner alternatives. However, the world is currently using both fossil fuels and renewables to meet demand from artificial intelligence and economic development, rather than replacing one with the other.

Geopolitical conflicts have further complicated the energy market. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered an initial shock, but this year’s conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. That closure sent fossil fuel prices skyrocketing, forcing nations to rethink their energy systems.

The United States, the world’s largest historic carbon polluter, skipped last year’s conference and is not expected to participate this year. Niklas Höhne, co-founder of Germany’s NewClimate Institute, noted that the absence of the U.S. creates a funding gap that no other single player can fill. "There’s no other player who can jump in," Höhne said regarding the financial burden of climate adaptation.

Turkey, the co-host, is pushing a specific plan to increase electricity’s share of global energy use from 21% to 35% by 2035. The proposal favors renewable sources for power generation and transportation. Negotiators will also discuss how to provide promised funds to poor countries to switch to renewables and recover from climate-induced damage.

Brazil, which hosted the previous conference, released a detailed voluntary roadmap in October for transitioning away from fossil fuels. Ana Toni, who served as CEO of last year’s talks, said the roadmap is designed to break down the large problem of emissions into smaller, actionable solutions. She emphasized that nations must stop subsidizing fossil fuels to make the transition viable.

David Waskow, international climate chief at the World Resources Institute, described the conference as a moment to examine the current state of climate change closely. "It’s really the moment that we place a magnifying lens on what’s happening in the world on climate change, both good and bad," Waskow said.

The conference runs through November 21. Delegates will work to finalize agreements on fossil fuel phase-outs and financial support mechanisms. Much of the progress is expected to happen in side negotiations where consensus is not required. Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, stated that the conference is taking place in a deeply fragmented world where economic and energy security pressures are intensifying.