Oil prices up 60% as Qatar mediates between Iran and U.S. before midterms

Brent crude oil prices are 60% higher today than they were before the war began eight months ago. The price hike follows the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which has disrupted global oil and gas flows. The increase directly affects the cost of fuel and goods across the Gulf region and beyond.

Qatar is leading mediation efforts to prevent new U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. These talks are taking place in the 72 hours leading up to Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections. Qatari mediators visited Tehran, and an Iranian delegation traveled to Doha. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told state media on Saturday that there is no definitive conclusion to the talks yet. However, he noted discussions about a two-day plan where Iran would stop attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz to allow direct talks between Washington and Tehran to restart.

President Donald Trump, speaking at a Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago, said the U.S. is not in a hurry to restart the war. He claimed that U.S. forces have destroyed almost every piece of military equipment in Iran, including many manufacturing sites and nuclear facilities. "We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes," Trump said. He did not specify when those strikes might happen relative to the midterm elections.

In Bahrain, the aftermath of the war is visible from the highway. The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet logistics hub sits on the island nation's coast. Iran struck this hub on the first day of the war, February 28. Correspondent Aya Batrawy, reporting from Bahrain, saw charred and blackened warehouses and damaged radar equipment. Before the war, 8,000 military personnel were stationed at the base. That number has dropped to less than 100.

Bahrain's foreign minister, Abdullatif Al Zayani, spoke at the Manama Dialogue security forum on Saturday. He described how Iran fired missiles and drones at both U.S. military sites and civilian infrastructure in Bahrain. He noted that Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to hit undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz if war resumes. "A shared artery is being used as a tool of pressure and threat," Al Zayani said.

Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, sent a message to armed forces commanders this weekend. He instructed that any threat to the country must be met with an immediate response "without geographical limitations." Iranian state media interpreted this to mean that new U.S. or Israeli attacks would cause greater damage than previous strikes.

Gulf Arab states view Iran as a top security threat, but they do not want a full-scale war. Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati diplomat, spoke at the summit in Bahrain. He argued for political tools over military ones. "Military solutions will only complicate the current, very complicated scene that we have and will not actually bring any quick off-ramp to the solution," Gargash said.

The United Arab Emirates, which has strong ties to the U.S. and Israel, shares this cautious stance. Dubai, often considered a safe haven for investment and tourism, has felt the impact of the conflict. Economies across the Gulf are suffering as a result.

Saudi Arabia faces its own challenges. The country is working to protect its airports and oil facilities from attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. The unified message from Gulf leaders at the Manama Dialogue is that further attacks on Iran would be devastating for the region's stability.

The next major event for the region is Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections. Gulf diplomats and military officials say they are waiting for the outcome before making major strategic moves. The uncertainty has kept the region on edge for the past three days.