Polls show 38% of Americans say finances have worsened

President Donald Trump is facing record-low approval ratings as prices continue to rise during his second term. Voters are blaming the administration for higher costs on goods and energy. The president was elected in 2024 with a mandate to lower prices, but inflation is still outpacing wages for many households.

The economy is splitting into two groups. Wealthy Americans are seeing gains in their stock portfolios, which are dominated by artificial intelligence companies. Meanwhile, regular Americans are struggling with higher interest rates and rising costs. These rates make it harder to buy homes or cars. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 44% of people said their finances stayed the same. Another 38% said their economic situations worsened. Only 15% said things got better.

Voters are also unhappy with the administration’s hard-line immigration tactics and cuts to programs like Medicaid. These moves are angering swing voters and energizing Democrats. History suggests the president's party will lose seats. Since World War II, the president's party has gained seats in the House in midterm elections only twice. On average, they lose 26 seats. When a president has an approval rating below 50%, that average loss jumps to 35 seats.

Democrats have performed well in special elections and 2025 off-year races. This success suggests they are favored to win control of the House. They are also in striking distance of winning the Senate. This was seen as a longshot earlier in the cycle. However, the extent of their gains may be limited by structural factors. There are about 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018. In 2018, Democrats won a net gain of more than 40 seats.

Mid-decade redistricting has helped Republicans insulate their seats. An NPR analysis estimates Republicans gained an eight-seat advantage from these map changes. Trump pushed state legislatures to draw maps that favor the GOP. Latino voters in South Texas could affect these numbers. Democrats also face internal challenges. Many self-identified democratic socialists are engaged and dislike Trump’s job performance. However, a clash of ideals may emerge as the 2028 presidential primaries approach.

The 2028 election effectively begins right after these midterms. Candidates seeking a national boost often announce early, in January or February. Nothing is certain until results are in. Republican turnout will be a deciding factor. Trump has traveled to red states to urge his base to vote. Without high turnout for the GOP, a small Democratic gain in the Senate could become a larger one.

Some races may not be decided on election night. Key Senate races could take days or weeks to call. Trump is already preparing claims that the election is rigged. He has made similar claims after previous elections. A quarter of Republicans in the latest poll said their candidate should not accept the results if the vote is close. This leaves room for misinformation if the margins are tight.

Trump has been a drag on the GOP this cycle. Republican candidates mentioned him frequently in ads during the primaries. Now, those mentions are nearly nonexistent. Republicans admit privately that Trump is a double-edged sword. He is needed for the base but toxic to swing voters. His support among 2024 crossover voters has dropped. This year, the U.S. is involved in an ongoing war in Iran, which Trump promised to avoid. This conflict has driven up gas prices.

Polls show consistent support issues for the president over the long term. His party is not favored by many voters. However, neither party will likely hold massive majorities. Compromise will be necessary to pass major legislation. If Democrats do not win the House, it would be a major polling error. For now, the numbers point to a shift in power.