Trump faces steep midterm odds as economy weighs on GOP
Historical data and current polling suggest Republicans will lose House seats, with Democrats favored to take control of the chamber.
By Fatima Saleh ·
The United States enters the midterm elections with the president's party facing historic headwinds. A new poll indicates that voters are punishing the administration for rising prices and a divisive war with Iran, setting the stage for a likely Democratic takeover of the House.
President Trump won the 2024 election largely on a promise to lower costs. That mandate has not materialized. Instead, his approval ratings have hit record lows as energy and goods prices climb. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows that 44% of respondents say their finances have stayed the same, while 38% report their economic situations have worsened. Only 15% feel better off financially.
The path to this political moment began with specific policy choices. Tariffs and the conflict with Iran have directly increased costs for consumers. Inflation is outpacing wages, and interest rates are rising, making it harder for millions of Americans to buy homes or cars. This economic strain is angering swing voters and energizing Democrats, who have also gained ground on issues like immigration enforcement and healthcare funding.
History favors the challengers in this cycle. Since World War II, the president's party has gained House seats in midterms only twice. The average loss is 26 seats, but that number jumps to 35 when the president's approval rating falls below 50%. Trump's approval has been below that threshold for much of the year. Democrats overperformed in special elections and the 2025 off-year contests, signaling strength ahead of November.
Structural factors complicate the picture for both sides. Mid-decade redistricting gave Republicans an estimated eight-seat advantage, according to an NPR analysis. However, there are roughly 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018. Democrats are still favored to win the House and are within striking distance of the Senate, a position that seemed unlikely at the start of the cycle.
Election night may bring delayed results. Trump has already suggested he may challenge the outcome, a pattern seen in previous cycles. A quarter of Republicans in the latest poll said their candidate likely should not accept the results. This leaves room for disputes if key Senate races are close. The president has been campaigning in red states to drive turnout, aiming to prevent a one or two-seat Democratic pickup from becoming a six or seven-seat gain.
The 2028 presidential race begins almost immediately after the midterms. Candidates are expected to announce their bids in January or February. For now, the focus remains on Tuesday, where Republican turnout will determine the final margin of victory. If Democrats do not win the House, it would be a major polling error.
