College Football: Top-ranked Miami faces rare underdog odds at Notre Dame
Injury to star receiver Malachi Toney makes the number one team more than a touchdown underdog for the first time in 12 years.
By Fatima Saleh ·
The number one team in the country will travel to South Bend, Indiana, on Saturday night as a betting underdog by more than seven points. This scenario is extremely rare in modern college football.
No. 1 Miami (8-0) visits No. 4 Notre Dame (7-1). Most sportsbooks list the Fighting Irish as favorites by more than a touchdown. This marks the first time in 12 years that an AP No. 1 team has faced such a large spread in a regular-season game.
The previous instance occurred in 2014. Mississippi State, ranked No. 1, was a touchdown underdog to then-No. 4 Alabama. Mississippi State lost that game 25-20. Clemson was a 6.5-point underdog in the 2016 national championship game against Alabama, but that contest was not part of the regular season.
The shift in odds follows the injury to Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney. DraftKings Director of Sports Operations Johnny Avello noted that Toney accounts for half of Miami's offensive production. Avello said the betting line may be overreacting to the absence. He expects the spread to drop below seven points by kickoff.
Avello stated that the general public is unlikely to view the game as a sure win for Notre Dame. Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel agreed that the current line favors Notre Dame too heavily. As of Friday afternoon, 73% of bettors took Miami with the spread, while 58% took the Notre Dame moneyline.
No. 1 teams have been underdogs twice this season. Ohio State was a 2.5-point underdog when it lost to Texas. Georgia was a 2.5-point underdog when it beat Alabama. Both games were played on the road. The difference this week is the size of the spread. Miami could become the biggest top-ranked underdog since No. 1 Notre Dame was a 10-point underdog to Alabama in the January 2013 national championship game.
Toney's injury also altered the Heisman Trophy betting market. He was a favorite before getting hurt. With him expected to be out until December, he is off most boards. Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is now a slight underdog to Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith in Caesars odds. Feazel said Mensah would have a strong claim to the award if he leads Miami to a win in this game.
