House control hinges on 36 toss-up districts

The arithmetic for controlling the U.S. House of Representatives has tightened, with the balance of power resting on a smaller group of competitive districts than the total number of open seats might suggest. While the Senate race is effectively settled, the House contest remains fluid. The focus has shifted to identifying which specific districts have the highest probability of changing hands or holding on by a margin of error.

In South Carolina, the dynamics of the Senate race are influencing local political spending. President Donald Trump campaigned in Rock Hill on Thursday, urging voters to support Republican Darline Graham. Graham, who was appointed to the seat in July following the death of her brother Lindsey, faces a challenge from pediatrician Annie Andrews. Trump described Lindsey Graham as a great politician and stated that his sister possesses the same political gene. Andrews countered by urging voters to try something new for once, noting that the state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly three decades.

Simultaneously, a procedural dispute has emerged in Alaska that could affect the final tally. Democrat Mary Peltola is facing questions about her candidacy after her campaign allegedly recruited a third-party candidate with the same name as Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. The New York Times reported that the move was intended to confuse voters. President Trump said Thursday that it is hard to believe Peltola would be allowed to run and that observers will have to see what happens next.

Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy has ordered an investigation into the matter, stating that tricking voters strikes at the integrity of elections. Peltola has dismissed the allegations as a distraction from key issues. The Senate majority math points to a Republican hold, but the House outcome depends on these specific contests and potential procedural rulings in states like Alaska.