Early Voting Hits 48 Million as Midterm Race Tightens in Key States

U.S. voters cast a record 48 million early ballots for the November 3 legislative elections, according to official data released Friday. This total surpasses the previous record of 45.9 million set during the 2022 midterms. The surge is concentrated in closely contested Senate races that will determine control of the chamber for the final two years of the Trump presidency.

The Election Lab at the University of Florida tracked 47,922,669 early votes by noon on Friday. The data shows a distinct shift in participation across key states. In Texas, more than six million people voted early by Wednesday. Official figures indicate that in-person turnout in that state was approximately 50% higher than in 2022. North Carolina reported a 37% increase in early voting compared to the same point four years ago. South Carolina exceeded its total early vote from the entire 2022 cycle on Monday, with five additional days of early voting remaining.

Party affiliation data from states that track registration shows a disparity in early turnout. Democrats account for roughly 44% of early voters in those jurisdictions. Republicans represent 31%, while unaffiliated and minor party voters make up the remaining 25%. This gap contrasts with historical trends where Republican turnout often spikes on Election Day.

Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who oversees the Election Lab, noted a rise in participation among Black and Hispanic voters. This increase is particularly visible in majority-Hispanic communities along the Texas-Mexico border. However, analysts warn against interpreting early vote shares as a forecast of the final outcome. Party registration does not indicate specific candidate support, and tens of millions of Americans have not yet voted.

Experts note that higher early participation does not necessarily translate to higher total turnout. Some voters may simply shift their voting timing rather than adding to the total pool. The final result will depend on how many remaining voters participate on Tuesday and which candidates they select.