Agudat Yisrael and Bennett emerge as potential deciding factors in Israel's next government

Political analysts are closely watching two specific variables as Israel prepares for its upcoming general election: the three-seat faction of Agudat Yisrael and the future of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Assessments circulating within the political establishment indicate that these two elements may prove decisive in determining which side secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority. With less than a day remaining before voting begins, figures from both the opposition and the governing coalition are reviewing various scenarios for the post-election period.

One prominent theory suggests that Agudat Yisrael, led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, could support a government led by the current opposition. This backing might be exchanged for specific budgetary agreements. However, even such an arrangement would not guarantee a stable majority, as the new government might still require votes from Arab parties to pass legislation. This potential shift is not unprecedented, as Maariv reported in August that Goldknopf's faction was already exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot, a key figure in the change bloc.

These internal discussions have arisen amid growing friction within United Torah Judaism. Tensions between Agudat Yisrael and the Degel Hatorah faction have intensified over the haredi military draft and the relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the current coalition's conduct, while Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in the government. Rabbi Dov Lando added to the uncertainty by sending a letter that reserved the faction's commitment to the bloc led by Netanyahu.

Despite these signals, Goldknopf faces a difficult challenge in pivoting his faction. His voters are largely identified with the Right, and political assessments warn that any visible support for a change bloc government could drive some of his base toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This demographic pressure makes a formal alliance a risky move for Goldknopf, who must weigh the benefits of a budget deal against the potential loss of his core constituency.

Attention has also shifted to Bennett, who could influence the outcome if neither major bloc achieves a clear majority. One scenario under discussion involves Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led government if the incumbent side falls short of the 61-seat threshold. While viewed as a remote possibility, some analysts believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc positioned to take such a step, given his historical ties to the Right. Such a move would require him to shift his base of support, a task complicated by the current makeup of his party.

A similar maneuver by Avigdor Liberman has also been raised, citing his past role as defense minister in a Netanyahu cabinet. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is unlikely to make such a move due to ongoing personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. As of now, these possibilities remain political assessments and scenarios rather than formal agreements between the parties.