Likud Factions Divide on Turnout Risks Before Tuesday Vote

Likud members are split on their chances ahead of Tuesday's general election.

Party insiders describe a sharp divide between those confident in a win and those worried about high turnout among Netanyahu's opponents. Shlomo Filber, who manages the party's internal polling, is the center of this debate. One source noted that the outcome depends entirely on his numbers, stating, 'Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other.'

Concerns focus on financial flows from organizations and nonprofits supporting rival candidates. Party sources say these groups have spent large sums on social media, signage, field events, and transportation for Arab voters. They also mention efforts to bring Israelis living abroad home to cast ballots. One Likud source called it 'the nonprofits affair on steroids,' arguing that these entities provide a support network outside standard party financing rules. The sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or prove the activity was illegal.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claims the committee focused on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while ignoring the work of these outside organizations.

On the ground, Likud is preparing a major operation for Election Day despite restrictions on polling station data. The strategy aims to prevent right-wing voters from drifting to smaller parties. Negotiations to bring Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter out of the race failed. Winter, a former Givati Brigade commander, leads the People of Israel party. Rabbi Eli Sadan was involved in talks and later issued a statement supporting Winter.

Likud is also courting other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. During those talks, the possibility of new legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister was raised. The election date of October 27 allows the current government to serve its full term. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.