Saints face steep odds after falling to 2-5
History suggests few teams recover from this start, but New Orleans has specific hurdles to clear in the final ten games.
By Lauren Foster ·
The New Orleans Saints are using their current bye week to recover from a 16-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Paris. That defeat dropped the team to a 2-5 record, placing them in last place in the NFC South. They now sit two full games behind the current wild-card cutoff.
Veteran defensive end Cam Jordan believes the season is still salvageable. In an appearance on ESPN’s “Get Up” show on Wednesday, he praised the offense and head coach Kellen Moore. “We’re sitting at 2-5, and I’m like, how did we get here?” Jordan said. He credited the growth of quarterback Tyler Shough and the presence of wide receivers Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele for giving the team a potent attack.
Statistical history paints a grim picture for teams with this record. Since the NFL moved to four-team divisions in 2002, 122 teams have started 2-5. Only nine of those clubs, a rate of 7.4%, advanced to the playoffs. The odds improved slightly after the league expanded to seven playoff teams per conference in 2020. In the six seasons since then, four of 33 teams starting 2-5 made the postseason, a success rate of 12.1%.
The Saints’ specific margin of defeat adds another layer of difficulty. They enter the break with a point differential of minus 32. That figure is worse than any team that has recovered from a 2-5 start to reach the playoffs since 2020. Since 2002, only three teams with a 2-5 record and a point differential of minus 30 or worse have made the playoffs. Those teams include the 2002 New York Jets, the 2011 Denver Broncos, and the 2015 Houston Texans.
Those historical examples relied on quarterback changes to spark their turnarounds. The Jets switched to Chad Pennington, the Broncos turned to Tim Tebow, and the Texans utilized a rotation after losing Brian Hoyer to injury. The Saints are keeping Shough as their starter, meaning they would have to achieve a playoff berth without a similar personnel shift.
One recent precedent offers a path for a young coaching staff. The 2021 Philadelphia Eagles also started 2-5 with a minus 26 point differential. Head coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts led that team to a 9-8 finish and an NFC wild-card spot. The Saints are closer to the division-leading Carolina Panthers than to any wild-card team, which complicates their path.
Head coach Kellen Moore acknowledged the need for correction during the break. “We’ve just gotta really dig in and solve this thing,” Moore said after the game in Paris. He noted that the team will use the time to evaluate and identify specific areas for improvement before the final 10 games.
