Experts discount Trump's role in crime drop
A Council on Criminal Justice survey finds federal policies played a minor role in the sharp decline in homicides.
By Samuel Hayes ·
A survey of 48 crime experts concludes that federal policies had little to do with the steep drop in U.S. homicides from 2024 to 2025. The Council on Criminal Justice released the findings last week, challenging the administration's assertion that its actions drove the decline.
FBI data released in August showed the U.S. homicide rate fell by 18% between 2024 and 2025. This marked the lowest rate recorded since at least 1900. Preliminary results from the 2025 National Crime Victimization Survey, published last week, indicate the nonfatal violent crime rate for Americans 12 and older dropped 25% to 7.4 per 1,000 people.
President Donald Trump claimed responsibility for the improvement during an August 14 speech at the Nassau County police academy in New York. "We have the numbers down because of what the federal government's doing," he said. The White House followed up with a news release four days later, stating that the president delivered the largest drop in violent crime in American history.
Attorney General Todd Blanche reinforced the message when the Justice Department released the victimization survey data. "Violent crime PLUMMETED in 2025 compared to 2024," Blanche said. The administration cited backing law enforcement and empowering the FBI to hunt predators as key reasons for the safer streets.
The expert panel assessed four dozen potential explanations for the homicide decline. None identified federal policies as a major driver. No expert ranked Trump's National Guard deployments as a top-five contributor, and only one saw them as having a limited impact. Similarly, increased immigration enforcement was cited as a limited role by two participants, but not as a top factor.
The survey found that easing pandemic-related social and economic disruption was the most frequently cited cause. Fifty-seven percent of the experts deemed this a major contributor. Other highly rated factors included the expansion of community violence prevention programs and increased use of focused deterrence strategies. The panel noted that presidents have a limited role in law enforcement, which remains primarily a state and local function.
The Council on Criminal Justice did not specifically ask about FBI arrests, a factor Trump has emphasized. However, the survey asked about improvements in homicide clearance rates, which 11% of experts viewed as a top contributor. Since the FBI accounts for about 8% of violent crime arrests in 2025, the panel suggested the president is overrating the agency's impact. These assessments are preliminary, and further research will be needed for firmer answers.
