Seven House districts draw over $10 million in final ad push

The final week of the 2026 midterm campaign is defined by a widespread push for Democratic control of the House. Ad spending data indicates that 70 districts are receiving at least six figures in investment from both parties. This spending level suggests the race is no longer about whether Democrats will take the majority, but how large that majority will be.

The highest concentration of money is in seven specific districts: Michigan’s 7th, North Carolina’s 1st, Florida’s 14th, 22nd and 25th, New York’s 17th, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd. Michigan’s 7th and North Carolina’s 1st have each seen more than $12 million in planned spending. Other heavily contested areas include Kentucky’s 6th and Arkansas’ 2nd, where Donald Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024.

Across these 70 competitive districts, voters supported Trump by an average of nine points in the previous presidential election. Sixty of these districts are listed as priorities by both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Republican National Committee. This overlap reflects the impact of the current administration’s polling numbers on the final stretch of the campaign.

The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. It lists 17 seats as toss-ups and 30 others as potentially competitive but leaning Republican. This map contrasts with the current House composition, where Republicans hold a 218-214 seat advantage. The shift in ratings aligns with recent polling data that shows Democrats leading by 10 points among registered voters and 8 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.

Several districts that voted for different parties in 2024 have seen changes in advertising strategy. Republicans have reduced ad reservations in districts held by Democrats Adam Gray in California, Nellie Pou in New Jersey, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez in Washington. They have also cut spending in the district of retiring Republican Don Bacon in Nebraska. These four seats previously split their votes between the presidential and House candidates.

Mid-decade redistricting has altered the competitive landscape in several states. Following a Supreme Court decision that modified the Voting Rights Act, Republicans redrew maps to add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Don Davis in North Carolina, Shomari Figures in Alabama, and Darren Soto in Florida. Only Figures and Soto are in districts currently rated as favoring Republicans. Democrats made similar adjustments in California, affecting districts held by Republicans James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, and Darrell Issa, as well as independent Kevin Kiley.

Economic concerns remain the primary driver for voters in this election cycle. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll identifies cost of living, rising gas prices, tariffs, and the war in Iran as top issues. These factors contribute to a record number of congressional retirement announcements and a trend of anti-incumbency results in primary elections.

Not every district with high spending will result in a close race. Many districts designated as in play by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee gave Trump close to 60% of the vote in 2024. These areas have seen little to no ad spending from either party, suggesting that the final margin of victory in some districts may remain wide despite the intense focus on the 70 highest-spending races.