Polymarket Investigates Sudden Gains in Israel Election Bets

Prediction market platform Polymarket is examining a cluster of timely trades related to the recent Israeli election, according to a Bloomberg News report published on Thursday. The investigation focuses on hundreds of newly created accounts that bet on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retaining power and his Likud party securing the most seats.

These accounts placed their wagers shortly before voting ended on Tuesday. The bets proved profitable after exit polls indicated that Netanyahu’s party had won more seats than initial reports suggested. Some of these accounts have already withdrawn more than $100,000 in total. The report notes that many other wallets still hold substantial unrealized gains.

An internal team at Polymarket told Bloomberg that the platform is reviewing dozens of the newly created wallets involved in the trading. Independent data analysis firms Polysights and Bubblemaps also identified the activity as suspicious and have begun their own inquiries. A representative for Bubblemaps confirmed that 101 Polymarket accounts received their first funding on election day, prior to the closing of polls.

The Bubblemaps representative stated that a few of these accounts sold their positions at a profit following the release of exit poll data. Polymarket and Polysights representatives did not respond immediately to requests for comment regarding the ongoing review.

This scrutiny comes as prediction markets face increased attention regarding potential insider trading. Platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket have reported a rise in suspicious activity alongside growing trading volumes. Bloomberg noted that distinguishing between informed trading and lucky bets remains difficult, and the current findings are not yet conclusive.