Nine North Carolina races await provisional ballot counts in final tally

County boards of election in North Carolina begin reviewing provisional ballots on Tuesday, November 10. This process will determine the final totals for nine state legislative and congressional races currently within one percentage point of one another. The state’s recount threshold requires a gap of 1 percentage point or less to trigger a recount request.

The tightest contest involves the 5th District U.S. House seat. Republican U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx trails Democratic challenger Chuck Hubbard by 99 votes, a margin of 0.04 percentage points. In the 2024 election, Foxx defeated Hubbard by 19 points. She noted in a Facebook post that she received 230 more provisional votes than Hubbard in that contest. If a similar pattern holds, those outstanding ballots could influence the final result.

In the 4th District, Republican U.S. Rep. Greg Murphy leads Democrat Raymond Smith by 233 votes, or 0.09 points. Murphy declared victory on social media. However, data from the State Board of Elections indicates 2,996 provisional ballots remain uncounted in his district. These include 2,542 Election Day votes and 454 cast during early voting. A plurality of these outstanding ballots are in Pitt County, where Murphy recorded his lowest total within the district.

Republican U.S. Rep. David Rouzer leads Democratic challenger Kimberly Hardy by 0.76 points in the 7th District. Rouzer has also claimed a victory despite the narrow margin. The State Board of Elections tracks six additional state legislative races that fall within the recount threshold.

In the state Senate, Republican Sen. Danny Britt of Robeson County holds a lead of 268 votes. This margin determines whether Republicans retain control of the chamber. There are 828 provisional ballots outstanding in his district. If Britt’s lead holds, the Republican majority remains intact.

Democrats currently lead in all five state House races within the recount threshold. All five seats are currently held by Republicans. In Guilford County, Democrat Shelly Headen leads Republican state Rep. John Blust. In Alamance County, former Burlington Mayor Ian Baltutis leads Republican Ryan Moffitt for an open seat. In New Hanover County, Democrat Tim Merrick leads Republican Dane Scalise by 0.3 percentage points, or 101 votes. The other contests involve Democrat Charlie Wallin leading Republican Rep. Ray Pickett in the west, and Democrat Claire Kempner leading House Deputy Majority Whip Tim Reeder in the east.

The State Board of Elections reports that more than one in eight provisional ballots cast through Thursday came from voters in the Registration Repair Project. These voters lacked a driver’s license number or the last four digits of their Social Security number on their registration records. If they presented photo ID at the polls, their votes are expected to count. County boards will spend the remainder of the week tallying provisional ballots, along with mail-in, military, and overseas votes.

Counties will finalize their vote totals at meetings held at 11 a.m. on Friday, November 13. Second-place finishers in districts located within a single county must submit recount requests by 5 p.m. on Monday, November 16. Candidates in districts spanning multiple counties have until noon on Tuesday, November 17 to file for a recount.

State law allows a second recount, conducted manually at a random sample of voting sites, if the machine recount leaves the trailing candidate with a viable argument. A third, full manual recount is triggered if the sample data suggests the outcome could change. The State Board of Elections is scheduled to certify all results at 11 a.m. on November 24. All recounts must be completed before this certification date.