South Texas Starship test targets 22.5-hour orbit

SpaceX is scheduled to conduct its most ambitious Starship test yet later today. The giant rocket is set to lift off from a pad in South Texas, complete a full orbit of the Earth, and land vertically at the same site approximately 22 and a half hours after launch.

The development marks a shift in the company’s strategy. SpaceX has indicated it will stop flying its smaller Falcon 9 rocket to prioritize Starship production. This change affects the Dragon capsule, which currently serves as the only American spacecraft capable of transporting NASA astronauts to and from the International Space Station. Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, noted that Dragon became the standard method for astronaut access to orbit due to its reliability.

NASA signed a contract in September for three additional Dragon flights to the station. Assuming these missions occur consecutively every six months, Dragon service would continue through 2028. The International Space Station is currently slated for retirement in 2030.

Elon Musk said on X earlier this year that once Starship flies several times per week, SpaceX will shift engineering resources to achieve a launch rate of several times per day. This shift means winding down the Falcon 9. Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president, compared the Falcon 9 and Dragon combination to a minivan at a summit in Los Angeles in September. She stated that while suitable for short trips, it is not ideal for a six-month journey to Mars.

SpaceX revenue data shows launch income reached approximately $2.1 billion through September of this year. In contrast, the Starlink satellite service generated about $12.8 billion, and the company's AI business earned roughly $10.9 billion. Tim Farrar, president of TMF associates, said SpaceX is not making substantial profits from NASA contracts, calling them small potatoes compared to the company's other ventures.

Quilty Space analysis suggests the commercial launch market may face a shortfall of about 150 launches between now and 2030 if Falcon 9 is retired. The U.S. Space Force stated it has secured Falcon 9 launches through 2028 and is confident other suppliers will cover the difference. Shotwell implied Boeing could fill the gap for crewed flights. Boeing’s Starliner capsule is scheduled for a crewed test flight sometime in 2028.

Musk recalled NASA’s 2008 contract that saved SpaceX from financial ruin. He told CBS in a 2014 interview that he blurted out, 'I love you guys!' upon receiving the deal. Farrar observed that while SpaceX’s business logic is sound, the agency that prevented the company’s bankruptcy might expect a higher degree of loyalty.