JPMorgan forecasts 400,000 U.S. humanoid robots by 2030

JPMorgan projects that U.S. manufacturing of humanoid robots will produce between 300,000 and 400,000 units by 2030. The bank estimates this total could rise to 1.5 million units by 2035 as the industry moves past demonstration phases.

The report attributes this expansion to labor shortages and improved unit economics. JPMorgan identified manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing as the primary sectors driving commercial adoption. The bank also noted that the Trump administration views imported robotics as a national security risk. This stance could trigger tariffs or other policy actions designed to boost domestic output.

Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, near-term growth faces physical limits. The bank cited hardware availability, artificial intelligence training data, and computing capacity as key constraints. Most U.S. developers, excluding Tesla, are currently targeting annual production volumes of 10,000 to 30,000 units.

The report names Tesla’s Optimus, Agility Robotics’ Digit, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, Figure AI’s models, and Apptronik’s Apollo as the leading platforms in the market. JPMorgan analysts stated that progress is currently held back by specific supply chain bottlenecks. They identified hands, actuators, processing power, and factory capacity as the binding constraints.

"Near-term progress remains supply constrained, with a few binding bottlenecks: hands, actuators, the brain, and production capacity," the firm said.