Florida Voters Face 1.5 Million Republican Registration Gap on Tuesday

Florida voters cast ballots on Tuesday for the governor, a U.S. Senate seat, and all 15 congressional districts. The election marks the first use of a new congressional map adopted by Republicans, a change designed to protect their slim majority in the U.S. House. The state currently has 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, a reversal of the long-standing Democratic registration advantage that held until 2021.

The political balance in Florida has shifted to the right over the last 25 years. Democrats held a registration lead for decades until 2021. By 2024, President Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988 to win Miami-Dade County. The state’s last Democratic win for governor occurred more than 30 years ago, and the last Democratic victory for a U.S. Senate seat took place in 2012.

The gubernatorial race features a former Republican running as a Democrat against a sitting Republican representative. Former Rep. David Jolly won the Democratic primary on Aug. 18 with 61% of the vote. He joined the Democratic Party in 2025 after leaving the GOP in 2018. His running mate is former Rep. Gwen Graham, the daughter of the late Bob Graham. The Republican nominee is Rep. Byron Donalds, who secured the nomination with about 48% of the primary vote. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have campaigned for Donalds in the state since last month.

In the Senate contest, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody faces Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon. Moody assumed the seat in January 2025 after DeSantis appointed her to replace Marco Rubio, who became secretary of state. Nixon won the Democratic primary with 56% of the vote, defeating former National Security Council staff member Alex Vindman. If elected, Nixon would be Florida's first Black U.S. senator, while Donalds would become the state's first Black governor.

The new district lines eliminate four congressional districts most recently held by Democrats. Three Democratic incumbents face difficult races in newly drawn districts: Kathy Castor in the 14th District, Darren Soto in the 9th District, and Jared Moskowitz in the 25th District. The redrawn 22nd District in South Florida also presents a competitive challenge, as it combines parts of the former 20th, 26th, and 18th districts.

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern Time in most of the state and at 8 p.m. Eastern Time in a few Central Time counties. Florida counties are expected to release results from early in-person and mail voting in their first updates of the night. In the 2024 general election, the vote count reached the halfway mark at 7:16 p.m. Eastern Time, with 99% of votes counted by 10:51 p.m. Eastern Time.

The Associated Press will declare winners for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, and other statewide and legislative offices. The AP does not make projections and will only declare a winner when no scenario allows a trailing candidate to close the gap. A machine recount is required if the margin is 0.5% or less, followed by a manual recount of overvotes and undervotes if the margin drops to 0.25% or less.