74,000: The death toll in Gaza as Israel heads to the polls

Israel enters a tightly contested national election on Tuesday with a death toll in Gaza exceeding 74,000. The vote marks the first national ballot since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war that expanded to strikes on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Qatar.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving leader, seeks to extend his tenure after leading a coalition of far-right ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox parties. He faces an opposition bloc that identifies as Zionist but has largely adopted a similar right-wing approach. Netanyahu is currently wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Gaza and is undergoing a corruption trial, charges he denies.

The campaign focused on accountability for security failures, the issue of military service for ultra-Orthodox men, and efforts to exclude Arab-led parties from governing coalitions. Expectations for improved conditions for Palestinians were low, given that deadly attacks continued almost daily in Gaza despite a one-year ceasefire. Meanwhile, settler violence and military raids intensified in the occupied West Bank.

Analysts state that the political shift to the right began before the current government formed in 2022. They cite the collapse of the peace process and the 2018 Nation-State Law as early markers of this trend. The pace accelerated under Netanyahu's current team, which critics say attempted to remake the state by curbing Supreme Court review powers and ignoring rulings on conscription. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich played prominent roles in this restructuring.

Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King's College London, said a new leader would likely calm the political atmosphere. "He's a very divisive figure," Bregman said of Netanyahu. "A new prime minister is likely to calm things down." He cautioned, however, that Israel turned sharply right after October 7 and any new government would reflect that reality.

Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, described the election as a choice between a functioning democracy and a democracy in name only. He also framed it as a decision between maintaining the West Bank occupation or annexing it and pursuing the voluntary migration of its population, a goal suggested by figures in the current government. Daniel Levy, a former government adviser, noted that treating Palestinians as a consensus exists among Zionist parties, with differences centering on whether the state or settler militias should lead that effort.